Tuesday, May 16, 2006

The Stats Geek piles on

As Pat at Van Slyke has done previously, this week's Stats Geek column invokes the Win Probability charts at FanGraphs.com to debunk what has now become Jim Tracy's mantra, the Big Hit Theory.

To his credit, Littlefield on his Sunday show said essentially the same thing that Brian is saying here. When Brown fed him a softball about how the Pirates were struggling because they weren't hitting in the clutch and getting the big, game-changing hit, he said that the problem wasn't a lack of key hits, it was overall bad hitting.

It's disturbing to see the team's manager so clearly mistake the effect for the cause.

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